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Friday, January 10, 2014

JLR a perdu, selon ses propres chiffres!

Friday, January 10, 2014 | Add a comment

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Lors de la publication partielle des résultats au premier tour, j’avais fait des projections journalières et avais vu depuis le début : “A ce rythme, le candidat numéro 33 recueillerait au final moins de 21% des votes, et le numéro 3 passerait un peu en dessus des 16%, soit tout au plus 5 points de différences.” Toute modestie inhibée, j’avais vu assez juste, presque très juste.

Pour le second tour, ma démarche était presque la même, mais cette fois, au lieu de me baser sur les résultats de la CENI-T, j’ai fait exprès d’utiliser les résultats partiels publiés par AVANA, le QG du n°33.

Sur le site madagrow, j’ai refait ma projection sur les chiffres partiels de la Récapitulation AVANA, par district.

La question qui se pose est : est-il nécessaire de procéder au recomptage des voix? Voyons ensemble la réponse.

Mais avant d’entrer dans le vif du sujet, je vais donner quelques remarques qui vont nous permettre de juger de la véracité des chiffres source, qui, rappelons-le, sont issus du candidat malheureux n°33.
Dans le district de Vangaindrano, les chiffres de Avana font état de 275 BV reçus, alors que ce district n’en dispose que 257. Donc, il y a bien une erreur dans les chiffres de Avana.

Mis à part le district de Vangaindrano, le tableau de Avana affiche 7 districts aux résultats complets, qu’il nous est possible de comparer avec les chiffres de la CENI-T (sans nécessité de projection). Pour 3 districts sur 7 (Ivohibe, Mahajanga 2, Sainte Marie), les chiffres sont exacts. Pour 1 district, Antsiranana 1, il y a un écart de seulement 1 voix (et c’est les données de Avana qui donnent une voix de plus pour sont adversaire). Encore plus curieux, les résultats de Avana dans le district de Manjakandriana défavorise le candidat n° 33 par rapport aux résultats de la CENI-T.
C’est à Andramasina et Mandoto qu’on voit des différences entre les données CENI-T et Avana et dont la différence défavorise le candidat n°33 si l’on tenait compte des chiffres du CENI-T. Sachant qu’il n’y a que 88 BV dans le district de Mandoto, une publication par BV de la part de Avana dans ce district nous permettra de comparer les résultats avec ceux de la CENI-T et de voir au moins un cas flagrant de détournement de chiffres.
Enfin, Il peut être intéressant aussi de noter que ces 7 districts totalisent 742 BV (3,71%) et si les chiffres du QG Avana sont corrects, la différence de nombre de voix en défaveur du n°33 est de 1030.

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Districts non complets dans les chiffres du QG Avana pour lesquels le total provisoire du n°33 chez Avana est supérieur au total définitif du n°33 chez CENI-T.
Ankazobe: 693 voix de différence
Antananarivo Avaradrano: 720 voix de différence
Antananarivo II: 1264 voix de différence
Fenoarivobe: 3181 voix de différence
Arivonimamo: 9 voix de différence
Antsirabe II: 6331 voix de différence
Faratsiho: 735 voix de différence
Betafo: 1346 voix de différence
Morafenobe: 998 voix de différence

Soit il y avait donc un détournement de voix au détriment du n°33 chez les chiffres de la CENI-T, soit les chiffres du QG Avana sont quelques parts gonflés. Là dessus, une confrontation des PV permettrait de mettre la lumière.

===
Projection. Ok, maintenant parlons de la projection des chiffres publiés par le QG Avana. J’ai fait un prorata par rapport au nombre de BV reçus. Sur le district de Vangaindrano, il m’est impossible de faire une projection puisque le nombre de BV reçus dans le tableau du QG Avana est faut. Donc, j’ai pris les chiffres du QG Avana, bien qu’il apparait que ces chiffres sont faux.

Alors, Mesdames et Messieurs, en supposant que le QG Avana ait les chiffres exacts partout et que la CENI-T a tort, et en prenant les chiffres de Avana sur le district de Vangaindrano, le nombre de voix des deux protagonistes serait :
n° 3: 1.870.118 voix soit 49,98%
n°33: 1.871.644 voix soit 50,02%
Différence de voix: 1526.

===
Conclusion: Cette analyse des chiffres a été faite en prenant uniquement les chiffres avancés par le QG Avana. Sur le cas du district de Vangaindrano, il apparait que les données du QG Avana sont incomplètes. Il est indéniable également que le candidat n° 3 mène largement dans ce district. Il est certain que parmi les BV manquants au QG Avana dans ce district, le candidat n°3 rattraperait facilement les 1526 voix de différence.
Une projection reste toutefois une projection, et la marge d’erreur doit être de plus ou moins 1%.
Le but de l’analyse est tout simplement de démontrer par l’absurde, que le camp du candidat Jean Louis Robinson ment sur les chiffres qu’ils avancent (au début, il a parlé de victoire à 56% sur 80% des BV, alors qu’actuellement, selon ses propres chiffres, il mène par 52,33% sur 65,08% des BV).
Une éventuelle confrontation des PV mettrait sans doute en lumière des détournements de voix, mais une telle démarche n’arriverait jamais à basculer la balance. Je reste persuadé qu’une confrontation est nécessaire (quand bien même cela ne fera pas changer le gagnant), mais je souhaiterais que le QG de Avana fasse le premier pas en publiant leurs chiffres par BV au grand public et en diffusant sur internet les scans des copies de procès verbaux en leur possession. Toute autre action de la part de la mouvance Ravalomanana ne sera qu’une autre vaine tentative de coup d’Etat, une de plus.

Ma feuille de calcul