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Sunday, September 7, 2008
Et si … fin de parcours pour Madagascar et Botswana
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La situation avant la dernière journée.
Madagascar a gagné à domicile face au Botswana par 1 but à 0. Un but somptueux de Praxis Rabemananjara. Mozambique à réussi à tenir tête à domicile face aux Ivoiriens. Le classement provisoire est le suivant:
Equipe J G N P Pts GD Côte d’Ivoire 5 2 3 0 9 +5 Madagascar 5 1 3 1 6 -2 Mozambique 5 1 2 2 5 +1 Botswana 5 1 2 2 5 -4
La victoire malgache face au Botswana est précieuse pour améliorer son classement FIFA, mais insuffisante pour espérer pouvoir poursuivre la deuxième phase. En effet, un facteur que les analystes oublient de prendre en compte, quand ils parlent de meilleur deuxième, est une règle ajoutée par la FIFA après la défection de l’Erythrée. Après que l’Erythrée a déclaré forfait, la FIFA a dû modifier le règlement du calcul des points pour les meilleures deuxièmes, afin de donner la même chance pour l’équipe deuxième du groupe 11. Cette règle stipule que les matches opposant le deuxième de groupe au dernier de groupe ne seront pas pris en compte. Donc, même si Madagascar parvient à tenir deuxième de groupe, si le Botswana termine dernier de groupe, on ne comptera pas les 4 points gagnés contre cette équipe, et si c’est Mozambique qui finit dernier, on ne comptera pas les matches contre le Mozambique, dont la raclée 3-0 à Maputo.
Côte d’Ivoire qualifiée, sauf miracle.
La Côte d’Ivoire a presque obtenu son ticket de qualification à la deuxième phase. Et c’est grâce à la victoire de Madagascar sur le Botswana. En effet, la Côte d’Ivoire est assurée de la première place du groupe, sauf si elle perd à domicile face à Madagascar par quatre buts d’écarts ou plus, situation qui n’est pas impossible mais … improbable.
Botswana fait ses adieux.
Le Botswana peut dire adieu à la qualification. Bien sûr, il peut espérer la seconde place du groupe, en battant à domicile le Mozambique et en espérant que Madagascar ne gagne pas face à la Côte d’Ivoire. Mais avec ce schéma, il ne peut pas espérer figurer parmi les meilleurs deuxièmes, car ils seront crédités de seulement deux points. En effet, la règle de calcul des équipes repêchées comme meilleurs deuxièmes stipule que le match effectué par la deuxième équipe de chaque groupe et le dernier ne sera pas pris en compte (je sais, je repète la même phrase), et en conséquence, s’ils gagnent le match, Mozambique finira dernière de groupe, et les deux victoires contre Mozambique ne seront donc pas comptées.
Le Mozambique garde sa chance de qualification.
Après avoir tenu en échec la Côte d’Ivoire par un but partout à Maputo, Le Mozambique peut encore espérer poursuivre le chemin. En effet, s’ils arrivent à battre le Botswana à Gaborone, et que si Madagascar ne gagne pas face à la Côte d’Ivoire, ils seront seront assurés de la seconde place, et crédités de 5 points avec une différence de buts de +2 pour le comptage des points des équipes meilleures deuxièmes (2 points des matchs nuls contre Madagascar et Côte d’Ivoire et 3 points pour la victoire 3-0 contre Madagascar à Maputo. 5 points en quatre matches, c’est suffisant.
Madagascar ne finira peut-être pas dernière de groupe.
La bonne nouvelle à tirer de la victoire contre Botswana, pour Madagascar, est qu’on ne finira peut-être pas dernière de groupe, cette fois-ci. Si le face à face Botswana - Mozambique se solde par une victoire, l’équipe perdante sera classée dernière de groupe. Si les deux équipes se partage les points, et que Madagascar ne perd pas par deux buts d’écart ou plus, ce sera le Botswana qui sera classé dernier. Quant à la qualification au deuxième tour, Madagascar n’a pas d’autre alternative que de gagner contre le Côte d’Ivoire. On a donc une toute petite chance, mais l’histoire a montré que nos footballeurs sont incapables de saisir sa qualification lors d’un match capital de la dernière chance. Les chances pour Madagascar de finir deuxième sont, soit de gagner contre le Côte d’Ivoire, soit d’être capable de ramener un nul et en espérant que Botswana - Mozambique font aussi un match nul.
Analysons le second cas, qui serait le moins improbable: Les deux derniers matches du groupes se solderont par deux matches nuls. Madagascar finira donc deuxième, avec 7 points, mais ce sera le Botswana qui sera classé dernier. On enlève nos points gagnés contre le Botswana (4 points, goal différence +1) et il nous reste trois points avec un goal différence de -3. Ce ne sera pas suffisant.
Si on arrive à faire le miracle de battre les Ivoiriens chez eux, on aura 5 points si le Botswana finit dernier de groupe, et 8 si le Botswana gagne à domicile contre le Mozambique.
Suggestion de stratégie et pronostic
Après avoir vu ces analyses, et avoir compris que pour Madagascar, la seule alternative est de gagner contre les Ivoiriens dans leur fief, la stratégie que je suggèrerais pour le match contre la Côte d’Ivoire est de verrouiller le match par un système purement défensif. Il faut y aller avec le moral d’un perdant, mais qui aura tout à perdre. L’important ne sera donc pas une qualification mais de sortir la tête haute de cette phase en évitant la dernière place. Le seul objectif doit être de tenir en échec, encore, la Côte d’Ivoire, et de ne pas la laisser marquer un seul but. Autrement dit, un nul vierge ou bien, avec un peu de bonne chance, une victoire grâce à un but de contre-attaque. Ce sera un match où l’on pourra tester encore la compétence de notre système défensif. Et pour la qualification à la CAN 2012, on pourra espérer échapper au match de barrage.
Quant au pronostic, Botswana vaincra le Mozambique par 1 à 0, et Madagascar ramènera un nul vierge contre les Ivoiriens (si on suit ma suggestion) ou alors Madagascar sera aussi battue par le Côte d’Ivoire par 4 à rien si on tente un système offensif. On sera donc classé troisième de groupe.